Heating Oil Costs Could Jump 31% This Winter, New Forecast Warns

Heating oil costs could rise sharply this winter, with a new forecast warning that U.S. households that rely on heating oil may spend 31.3% more than they did last winter.

The estimate comes from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, which published its winter heating report on September 14. NEADA expects average household heating costs across all fuel types to rise 8.7%, from roughly $948 last winter to $1,030 this winter. Heating oil households face by far the largest projected increase.

That 31.3% figure needs some context. NEADA is forecasting an increase in total household heating costs, rather than saying the retail price of every gallon of heating oil will rise by exactly 31.3%. Even so, the organization points directly to higher oil prices and disruption linked to the conflict involving Iran as the main reason heating oil households face such a large increase.

Heating Oil Households Face the Biggest Increase

NEADA forecasts a much steeper increase for heating oil than for other common home-heating fuels.

Households using electricity could see heating costs rise about 9%, while natural gas users face a projected increase of 5.8%. Propane households could pay around 8.7% more. Heating oil stands out at 31.3%.

The differences matter because heating oil remains particularly important in the Northeast, where winters tend to be colder and a larger proportion of households still depend on oil-fired heating systems. NEADA notes that the Northeast already tends to face the highest household heating costs in the country.

A 31% increase therefore would not affect every U.S. household equally. It would fall most heavily on homes that already depend on one of the more expensive heating fuels.

Iran and Hormuz Are Part of the Story

The forecast also connects domestic heating bills with events thousands of miles away.

NEADA says crude oil traded at around $72 per barrel before the current conflict, before moving toward $100 as concerns grew over oil supplies and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The organization says those higher crude prices have already pushed wholesale heating oil costs higher.

The Energy Information Administration’s September outlook supports the broader picture of an oil market still dealing with supply constraints. EIA says global oil prices averaged $91 per barrel in August, $7 higher than in July, and forecasts some restrictions on Middle Eastern oil exports continuing through the end of 2026. The agency expects flows through Hormuz and alternative export routes to improve gradually, but it does not expect Middle Eastern production to return to pre-conflict averages until the second quarter of 2027.

That makes heating oil particularly exposed because its price remains closely tied to crude and other distillate markets.

The 31% Figure Is Still a Forecast

Households should not treat the 31.3% projection as a guaranteed bill increase.

Actual winter costs will depend on fuel prices, regional markets, household consumption and, importantly, the weather. NEADA expects El Niño to contribute to a warmer-than-normal winter across much of the United States, which could reduce the amount of fuel households need and soften some of the price increase.

The next major benchmark will come from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. EIA plans to publish its official 2026-27 Winter Fuels Outlook on October 6. That report should provide a broader federal forecast for heating oil, natural gas, electricity and propane costs going into winter.

For now, NEADA’s estimate acts as an early warning rather than a settled outcome.

Higher Heating Costs Add to Household Pressure

The heating oil forecast also arrives after several years of rising household energy costs.

NEADA says average home-heating costs across fuel types have risen 23.9% since the winter of 2021-22. It estimates heating oil costs have increased by 62.1% over that period, while electricity-based heating costs have risen 35.7%.

That creates a wider household-budget problem. Higher heating bills arrive alongside food, transportation, insurance and other expenses, leaving less room for unexpected costs.

For preppers, this makes the story relevant to financial preparedness for preppers as much as energy security. A winter fuel increase does not need to cause shortages to create problems. A large enough rise in normal household expenses can weaken emergency savings and force families to postpone other purchases or maintenance.

What To Watch Next

The October EIA Winter Fuels Outlook will be the next important indicator. Heating oil prices through September and early October will also show whether wholesale increases continue feeding through to consumers.

Oil markets remain another key factor. Any worsening disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, a renewed jump in crude prices or problems affecting refinery output could put further pressure on distillate fuels. Improved shipping conditions and falling crude prices could pull the forecast in the other direction.

Weather will ultimately decide how much fuel households need. A mild winter could offset some price pressure, while sustained cold weather would magnify it.

The Prepper Angle

This is not a reason to panic-buy heating oil or assume a shortage is coming. The current story is about price exposure, not evidence that heating oil will disappear from the market.

The practical takeaway is that households relying on oil should pay attention to winter energy costs earlier than usual. That connects directly with preparing for inflation, emergency fund planning, and broader household energy resilience.

Fuel markets can also affect more than heating. Higher distillate costs can feed into diesel, freight, agriculture and other parts of the economy, making this another story worth watching alongside Strait of Hormuz disruption.

Bottom Line

A new NEADA forecast says U.S. households that heat with oil could spend 31.3% more this winter than they did last year, far more than households using electricity, natural gas or propane.

The figure refers to projected total winter heating costs rather than a guaranteed 31% increase in the price per gallon, but the warning is still significant. Higher crude prices and continued uncertainty around Middle Eastern oil flows have made heating oil one of the most exposed household energy costs heading into winter.

The October EIA forecast will provide another important check on the numbers. Until then, the direction is clear enough to watch closely: winter heating could become considerably more expensive for households that rely on oil.